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Thank
goodness for a deck of cards! If Blackjack were played somehow
with dice or a spinning wheel, there would be no reason
to write this book. Cards are superior to dice or wheels
for one very important reason: Cards have memory. Mathematicians
call the dealing of cards "dependent sequential events."
I call it "making money."
The problem with games like Craps or Roulette, the next
two most popular casino games, is that consecutive bets
have no relationship to each other. The chances of throwing
any "point" on the dice or hitting any number
on the wheel are theoretically the same on each trial. Statistically,
these actions are "independent sequential events."
Nick the Greek observed, "Three things are sure to
get you eventually: death, taxes, and the house percentage."
He went on, "Logically, the only sound advice regarding
the game of dice is: Don't play it. The best long-term attack
I know is to play the `don't pass' line and take the odds.
Using that method, I've lost several million dollars. .
. ." The built-in house advantage is inescapable in
these games, since the odds in favor of the casino never
change with each bet.
The odds in Blackjack do change with each bet as the cards
are dealt out. For example, if your first hand versus a
dealer 10 up in a single-deck game consisted of A,A,A,A,10,10,
you would bust with a 24. However, the odds would thereafter
be very different for you. With all of the Aces out of the
deck, your chance of getting a Blackjack with its premium
payoff would be eliminated. As you will soon see, the appearance
of the three lOs also reduces your chance of winning for
all remaining hands dealt before a shuffle-up.
Conversely, if your first hand off the top of a deck was
5,6,5,5 and the dealer pulled a 5,9,9 to bust, you would
have a large advantage for the subsequent hands dealt from
the deck before shuffling. This is why Blackjack is the
only beatable casino game. The odds for or against you are
continually shifting with the value and number of cards
already put in play.
This chapter will show you how to evaluate the cards you
see played in order to determine when the remaining deck
presents an advantageous betting situation for you. When
the composition of the remaining cards in the deck favors
you, you will place large bets. When the remaining cards
are against you, you will be placing minimum bets. Sizing
your bets based on the cards that have already been seen
is called "counting." |
